基于PLS的消费、投资、出口与经济增长关系的重新检验

利用H-P滤波法来研究投资、消费、出口的周期变动与经济周期之间关系,研究表明在1978-2008年间我国经济周期大致分为3个阶段;然后分别以三个阶段为样本,将最终消费分解为城镇居民消费、农村居民消费和政府消费,利用偏最小二乘法研究投资、城镇居民消费、农村居民消费、政府消费、出口和产业结构对经济增长的贡献,研究表明投资、出口、农村居民消费的产出弹性有上升的趋势,城镇居民消费和政府消费的产出弹性先上升后下降,产业结构对经济增长的影响呈现下降的趋势。农村居民消费需求不足和产业结构不合理已成为制约中国经济发展的主要瓶颈,扩大农村居民的消费需求和调整产业结构已成当务之急。

A Retest with Respect to Relations of Consumption, Investment,Export and Economic Growth: Based on the Partial Least Square

This paper analyses the relations of consumption, investment, export and economic cycle using Hodrick-Prescott filter. The results show that the economic cycle of China is divided into three stages from 1978 to 2008. By the partial least squares method research contribution of investment, urban consumption, rural consumption and government consumption, exports and industrial structure to economic growth. The results show that output elasticity of investment, exports, rural consumption has rising trend; output elasticity of urban consumption and government consumption rise firstly then decline; effect of industrial structure to economic growth has declining trend. The shortage of rural resident consumption demand and irrational industrial structure restrict the China''s economic development. It is urgent for us to expand rural resident consumption demand and adjust the industrial structure.