| 社会技术方法在减少自然灾害损失中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘天卓,马利军. 社会技术方法在减少自然灾害损失中的应用[J]. 合肥工业大学学报(社会科学版), 2010, 24(6): 49-52 |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘天卓 马利军 |
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| 作者单位： | [1]中国科学技术大学党政办公室,合肥230026 [2]深圳大学管理学院,广东深圳518060 [3]香港中文大学系统工程与工程管理系,香港沙田 |
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| 摘 要： | 介绍了社会科学中三种工具在应对自然灾害时制定理性、整体的防御措施过程中不同阶段的具体应用。文章采用社会判断理论来确定安全指标;然后通过泰勒罗素图选择安全指标的合适阀值;通过系统动力学模型模拟对意外事件做出反应且进行调整的政策环境;最后将这三种工具应用于在面对即将来临的冰冻自然灾害时是否需要转移的决策过程,并分析其应用于其他自然灾害的决策过程的可能性。
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| 关 键 词： | 社会判断理论 泰勒罗素图 系统动力学模型 |
Using Social-technological Approaches to Reduce Loss from Natural Disasters |
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| LIU Tian-zhuo,MA Li-jun. Using Social-technological Approaches to Reduce Loss from Natural Disasters[J]. Journal of Hefei University of Technology(Social Sciences), 2010, 24(6): 49-52 |
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| Authors: | LIU Tian-zhuo MA Li-jun |
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| Affiliation: | 1.General Office,University of Science and Technology of China,Hefei 230026,China;2.School of Management,Shenzhen University,Shenzhen 518060,China;3.Department of Systems Engineering and Engineering Management,The Chinese University of Hong Kong,Shatin,Hong Kong,China) |
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| Abstract: | The applications of three social science tools in dealing with natural disasters are introduced to provide rational and whole support in different phases.This paper first creates safety indexes with social judgment theory,then chooses safety index threshold with Taylor-Russell diagram,and finally simulates the policy execution with system dynamics models.The three tools are also applied to deciding whether a transferring is necessary when faced with the icing weather.The possibility to reduce loss from other natural disasters by the applications of the tools is analyzed as well. |
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| Keywords: | social-judgment theory Taylor-Russell diagram system dynamics model |
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