Comparison of the effectiveness of forecasts obtained by means of selected probability functions with respect to forecast error distributions |
| |
Authors: | Ghazi Shukur Krzysztof Dmytrów |
| |
Affiliation: | 1. Department of Economics and Statistics, Linnaeus University, Kalmar, Sweden;2. Econometrics and Statistics Institute, University of Szczecin, Szczecin, Poland |
| |
Abstract: | The forecasting of sales in a company is one of the crucial challenges that must be faced. Nowadays, there is a large spectrum of methods that enable making reliable forecasts. However, sometimes the nature of time series excludes many well-known and widely used forecasting methods (e.g., econometric models). Therefore, the authors decided to forecast on the basis of a seasonally adjusted median of selected probability distributions. The obtained forecasts were verified by means of distributions of the Theil U2 coefficient and unbiasedness coefficient. |
| |
Keywords: | Forecasts Forecast errors distributions Forecasting Forecasting accuracy Unbiasedness |
|
|