城市化与中国碳排放的实证研究

中国的经济增长模式正从外需增长转向内需增长,而内需增长的核心是建立在城市化基础上的,城市化已成为中国经济持续增长的另一引擎。为反映城市化对CO2排放的影响,利用STIRPAT模型研究1978—2010年期间不同发展阶段的东中西区域城市化对于碳排放的影响与效应。研究发现:对处于不同发展阶段的三个样本,城市化水平对各省碳排放均为正相关关系,说明中国经济在快速增长阶段城市化的推进带来了碳排放的增加,但这种正相关的关系并不显著,因城市化的进程会引起环境问题,进一步的城市化则慢慢消除了环境问题;无论是东部、中部还是西部地区,人均收入与碳排放、碳强度与碳排放的关系显著为正。鉴此,减排的重点在于降低碳强度,并可通过技术进步和能源结构的变迁减少碳排放。

Urbanization and Carbon Dioxide Emissions: Evidence from China

Chinas economic growth pattern is shifting from external demand growth to internal demand growth. The key of internal demand growth is on the basis of urbanization. Urbanization will become another engine to maintain China＇s sustainable growth. To show the influence of urbanization to carbon emissions, this paper utilized KAYA equation to study the influence of economic growth and urbanization to carbon emissions. This paper used the data between 1978 and 2009 to study the relationship between carbon emissions, carbon intensity, GDP per capital and urbanization. Johansen Cointegration found that carbon emissions had long term stable relationship with carbon intensity, GDP per capital and urbanization. Carbon intensity had negative influence on China＇s carbon emissions. Urbanization had positive and weak influence on Chinas carbon emissions, which indicates that urbanization increases carbon emissions. While GDP per capital had negative influence on carbon emissions. By causality tests, we found that urbanization is the granger reason of carbon emissions, which is due to the characteristics of high energy-consuming.