我国粮食价格波动的主要影响因素与影响程度

选取小麦、大米、玉米、大豆四种粮食产品作为研究对象，分别采用年度和月度数据，运用协整检验方法对影响我国粮食价格波动的成本推动、国际传导以及预期等三种因素进行实证分析，结果表明：国内粮食价格波动主要受农业生产资料价格推动和自身价格滞后的影响，国际价格波动只对大豆价格影响较为显著，对小麦和玉米影响较小，对大米几乎没有什么影响。政府稳定粮食价格应首先稳定农业生产资料价格，此外，短期可通过粮食储备进行调节，长期则应通过生产规划和完善期货市场以平抑价格波动。

An Empirical Research on the Influential Factors of China's Grain Prices Fluctuation

The key for stabilizing the grain price is to judge the main factors influencing the prices. This paper empirically studies the factors causing China＇ s grain prices fluctuations, selecting monthly and annum data and using cointegration test. Conclusions are that the price of agricultural means of production, international price and self-lag price contributed to the most fluctuation. On the terms of domestic grain prices＇ fluctuation, the price of agricultural means of production and self-lag price are the main reasons, and international grain prices＇ volatility influences domestic soybean price significantly, but seldom influ- ences wheat price and maize price and hardly has any effect on rice price. In order to stabilize the fluctua- tion, the government should take some measures： stabilizing the domestic price of agricultural means of production; adjusting grain reserve in the short run; planning agricultural production and perfecting the future market of agricultural products in the long run.