珠三角FDI与碳排放相关性测评——基于区域发展时滞与产业结构演变视角的分析

珠三角FDI依赖程度与碳排放总量均位居全国前列,深入研究二者关系有利于提高外资利用水平与加快节能减排进程。通过区域发展时滞视角,运用协整EG两步法、误差修正模型以及灰色关联度方法,发现珠三角经济对于FDI的依赖程度不断增强,FDI方向发生积极转变,但外资对碳排放的正向影响在长期内加强;FDI投入与能源消费结构向第三产业偏移,说明第三产业在外资利用方式与内容上较为粗放;第三产业对FDI的吸收超过第二产业成为趋势,但其发展方式、内容与外资引进结构仍然存在不足;主要耗能产业碳排放量与FDI相关性随经济发展出现上升趋势,表明经济发展方式仍然较为粗放。

The Assessment on the Correlation between FDI and Carbon Emission in the PRD——An Analysis from the Perspective of Regional Development Delay and Industrial Structure Transformation

The PRD’s FDI dependence and total carbon emissions are among the forefront of the country.An intensive study of their relationship helps improve the level of utilization of foreign capital and accelerate the energy-saving and emission-decreasing process.Through the perspective of regional development delay,and based on co-integration EG two-step method,error correction model,and the gray correlation degree method,the study reveals that the Pearl River Delta continuously enhance its FDI dependence degree and the FDI actively change its direction,but the positive impact of foreign investment on carbon emissions is strengthened in the long term;that FDI investment and the energy consumption structure shift to the tertiary industry illustrates the tertiary industry is rather extensive in both the mode and the content of the utilization of foreign capital;it has become a trend that the tertiary industry absorbs more FDI than the second industry,but the mode and content of its development and the introduction structure of foreign capital are still deficient;that the correlation between carbon emissions of the major energy-consuming industries and FDI tends to rise with the economic development proves that the mode of economic development is still very extensive.