中国碳排放的环境库兹涅茨曲线分析——基于空间面板模型的实证研究

在环境库兹涅茨曲线理论的基础上,选用30个省域2000—2009年数据,运用空间面板计量经济模型研究碳排放与经济增长的关系,结果表明:利用空间相关性指标检验出经济发展与碳排放之间存在显著的空间效应;利用空间面板自回归和误差模型发现,中国碳排放与经济增长存在倒U形关系,转折点在8.167亿元至11.025亿元人均GDP之间;工业结构比重对碳减排有消极影响,而技术进步、FDI与碳排放之间存在显著的正效应,这说明通过降低工业结构比重、促进新能源技术的革新以及引进外资等能减少中国的碳排放。

An Empirical Study of the Environmental Kuznets Curve for China's Carbon Emissions:Based on Spatial Panel Model

Based on the Environmental Kuznets Curve theory,using of panel data from 30 provinces in China from 2000 to 2009 and spatial panel econometrics methods to research the relationship between economics development and carbon emissions.The results are as follows: it exists strong spatial dependence significantly between economic development and carbon emissions by using of space correlation;it found carbon emissions and economic growth have poured u-shaped relation in China by using of space panel regression and error model;The turning point of the carbon dioxide is between 816.7 million yuan to 1.1025 billion yuan per capita GDP;The proportion of the industrial structure have negative effect to carbon emissions,however technical progress,FDI and carbon emissions exists positive and significant effect,It shows that,by reducing the proportion of industrial structure,promoting the innovation of new energy technology and the introducing foreign capital can reduce our carbon emissions.