陕西能源资源产业指标对资源税调整的响应态势拟合

对所筛选出的能源资源的有关指标进行相关性分析,辨识出与资源税相关性较高的指标,进而对其进行Granger因果检验.甄别出与资源税因果关系可能性较大的变量,基于Eviews平台,通过实验进行线性曲线拟合,对这些因变量构造拟合方程,并对拟合结果进行检验.研究显示,分别构造全省煤炭采选业新增固定资产投资、规模以上煤炭采选业工业总产值、规模以上煤炭采选业工业销售产值、石油消费量、单位GDP能源消耗五个拟合方程能够较好地模拟对资源税变动的响应关系,进而为预判资源税调整后可能对能源资源产业发展所带来的变化和为采取相应的对策提供定量化的决策依据.

Response Trend Fitting of the Indicators of Energy Resources Industry of Shaanxi for the Adjusted Resources Tax

Combined with the theory of resource taxes,and domestic and foreign resources tax levied actual quantitative analysis of the relationship between China’s resource tax adjustment and the Shaanxi energy resources,production,consumption and energy consumption indicators and the possible impact.First,correlation analysis,the relevant indicators of the energy resources for screening to identify the resource tax in which a higher correlation index,and thus its Granger causality test,screening out the resource tax which causality more likely than major dependent variable,the experimental linear curve fitting,the fitting equation,the dependent variable structure and fitting the results of the inspection.The results show that,respectively,the structure of the province’s coal mining industry,new investment in fixed assets,coal mining and industrial output value of above-scale coal mining industry,industrial sales output value of enterprises above designated size,oil consumption per unit of GDP energy consumption by five intended co-equation can simulate the response relationship for changes in the resource tax,and thus to predict the resource tax adjustment may be brought about by the development of energy resources industry changes and to take appropriate measures to provide a quantitative basis for decision making.