教派主义与叙利亚危机教派化机制浅析

关于教派因素在叙利亚危机中作用的现有研究多持工具论观点,忽视了教派身份认同被精英工具化的必要条件以及教派动员的微观机制。本文认为,教派因素确非叙利亚危机爆发的根本原因,但阿萨德家族统治时期叙利亚社会长期积累的教派间利益分流、社会区隔和敌对情绪,一定程度上构成了危机教派化的前提条件和大众动员的最初框架。2011年叙利亚危机爆发伊始,民间自发的地方性教派动员和暴力已然出现。叙国内外精英通过不同政策迅速直接或间接介入民间自发性的教派动员,制造或强化了历史积累和新近出现的教派敌意、利益冲突、能力、机会等因素,触发并加剧了“安全困境/暴力螺旋”和“群体内—群体间交互作用”两大机制,最终导致了危机的教派化。

Sectarianism and Mechanism of Secatarianization of the Syrian Crisis

Existing studies on the role of sectarian factors in the Syrian crisis are mostly instrumental,ignoring the necessary conditions for sectarian identity to be instrumentalized by elites and the micro-mechanism of sectarian mobilization.This article argues that sectarian factors are indeed not root cause of the Syrian crisis,but historically accumulated interest conflicts,social divisions,and hostility between different sectarian groups during the al-Assad family's rule constitute prerequisite for the sectarianization of the crisis and initial framework for mass mobilization.Since the outbreak of the Syrian crisis in 2011,spontaneous local sectarian mobilization and violence have already appeared.Through different policies,elites at home and abroad intervened directly or indirectly in the voluntary mobilization of different sectarian groups,creating or strengthening historically accumulated and newly emerging sectarian hostility,conflict of interest,ability,opportunity and other factors,thus triggering and intensifying the mechanisms of dilemma/spiral model and intergroup-intragroup interactions,which ultimately led to the sectarianization of the crisis.