城市化需求潜力与效应实证分析

从定量角度,采用协整检验和向量误差修正模型,分析城市化与居民消费、投资间的相互关系以及城市化的需求潜力与效应对我国经济增长的贡献。实证分析结果表明:城市化与投资、消费存在长期稳定均衡关系;城市化是消费、投资增长的格兰杰原因;城市化短期内对消费和投资产生波动性影响且作用较小,但长期却能够通过需求累积效应促进经济增长。

Empirical analysis on the demand potential and benefit during the urbanization

From the quantitative view,this article analyzes the relationship between urbanization and consumption and investment,and the effects on China potential demand and benefit contributing to economic growth by using co-integration analysis vector autoregressive model.The result from empirical analysis shows that there are long-term stable equilibrium relationship between urbanization and consumption and investment,and the urbanization is the Granger causes of consumption and investment;and urbanization will effect on consumption and investment weakly in short-term,but in long-term urbanization will promote economic growth through the cumulative effect.