应急物流运输网络的出行时间可靠性模型

利用出行时间可靠性对应急物流运输网络状态的随机影响，构建应急物流运输网络的出行时间可靠性模型，通过分层算法计算模型，并对比无环简单路径集在有突发事件影响和无突发事件影响下应急物流运输网络的出行时间可靠性，表明出行时间可靠性越高，应急物流运输网络通行能力也越高；发生突发事件的运输路段的可靠性越低，说明由于突发事件的发生路段的通行能力下降或者被中断，致使应急物流运输网络系统处于一种拥堵状态。数值算例展示了应急物流运输网络的出行时间可靠性模型在应用上的针对性、有效性以及算法的可行性，为运输网络的规划、设计及优化提供依据。

A Model of Travel Time Reliability for Transportation Network of Emergency Logistics

By utilizing random effects of travel time reliability on the state of emergency logistics transportation network, a model of such reliability can be built for the situation, and through a calculation model of hierarchical algorithm, a contrastive observation is made upon the travel time reliabilities with and without the effects of the emergencies in the set of no ring simple path. It is shown that, the higher the reliability is, the better passage the transportation network has in emergency logistics, whereas in the same case, the lower the reliability, the more it indicates that the passage of the emergency part of the road is reduced or even blocked, and thus the network is under congestion. Numerical examples have demonstrated that the model of the travel time relia- bility in emergency logistics has its pertinence and effectiveness in application, and feasibility in algorithm, providing a valid base for planning, designing, and optimizing the transportation net- work.