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RACE-OF-INTERVIEWER EFFECTS IN A PREELECTION POLL VIRGINIA 1989 |
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| Authors: | FINKEL, STEVEN E. GUTERBOCK, THOMAS M. BORG, MARIAN J. |
| Affiliation: | associate professor of government and foreign affairs and associate director of the Center for Survey Research at the University of Virginia associate professor of sociology and director of the Center for Survey Research at the University of Virginia research associate at the Center for Survey Research and a Ph.D. candidate in the department of sociology at the University of Virginia |
| Abstract: | All published preelection surveys of the 1989 Virginia gubernatorialcontest overestimated the vote share of the black candidateand eventual victor, Douglas Wilder. We offer a "social desirability"interpretation of the polls' inaccuracies and hypothesize thatclaiming support for Wilder was the socially desirable responsefor some whites, especially when the interviewer was black.We show a race-of-interviewer effect on the vote intention ofwhite respondents of 8–11 percentage points in a preelectionsurvey of Virginia voters. The effects were greatest among whiteDemocrats and among whites who were more uncertain of theirvote intention. We discuss the implications of these findingsfor race-of-interviewer research and for improving the accuracyof preelection forecasts in contests with black and white opposingcandidates. |
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