信贷规模、效率和结构对中国经济增长驱动力的影响分析——基于LMDI乘法分解

基于马克思主义经济学的经济增长理论，构建了由预付资本规模和预付资本社会再生产组织效率决定的市场经济社会再生产理论模型。基于理论模型，借助LMDI乘法分解对以信贷为代表的货币预付资本的规模、效率和结构对中国经济增长的驱动力进行了统计分析。分析认为：中国以信贷为主要代表的货币预付资本增加对经济增长存在驱动力，以信贷规模为代表的信贷投入是驱动经济增长的主要因素，信贷效率在没有外部扰动年份对经济增长呈现正向贡献，信贷的区域结构变化对中国当前经济增长不具备驱动力。

Analysis on the Driving Forces to Chinas Economic Growth of Credit Scale, Efficiency and Structure:Based on LMDI Multiplication Decomposition

Based on the basic principle of economic growth theory of the market economy in Marxism economics, this paper constructed a theoretical model that the prepaid capital scale and its efficiency decide the social reproduction output. And on this basis, it made a statistical analysis of the theoretical model with LMDI multiplication decomposition. Through the analysis, it drew the conclusions as follows： firstly, the increase of prepaid monetary capital which is mainly represented by credit in China has a driving force on economic growth; secondly, the credit which is represented by the credit scale is the main factor of driving the economic growth; thirdly, China＇s current credit regional structure changing does not have driving forces on economic growth; fourthly, in general, to strengthen the market economy mode of production drives economic growth, but the deterioration of the external environment brings negative influence to the internal market system.