中国旅游业和物流业发展关系的实证分析

文章运用1978—2013年的样本数据，选取反映我国物流业和旅游业发展的两组变量，运用适合小样本的Bootstrap仿真方法，对二者相互关系进行了实证检验。结果表明：国际旅游外汇收入与交通运输、仓储及邮政业增加值之间只存在单向因果关系，即国际旅游的增加会带动交通运输、仓储及邮政业的发展；货物周转量与国内旅游人数具有单向Granger因果关系，即货物周转量的增加会显著地推动国内旅游人数的增加。

An Empirical Analysis of the Relationship between Tourism and Logistics Industry Development in China

Using the sample data from 1978 to 2013, we choose the two groups of variables for measuring the development of tourism industry and the growth of logistics industry, then we use the Bootstrap simulation method based on small samples to test the relationship of them. The results show that: It only exists one-way causal relationship between international tourism income and added value of transportation, storage and postal, and the research demonstrates that development of international travel can drive the development of transportation, storage and postal industry. There is only unidirectional Granger causality between the cargo turnover and domestic tourist arrivals. That is to say, the increase of cargo turnover will significantly promote the development of domestic tourism.