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Integrating multicriteria decision analysis and scenario planning—Review and extension
Authors:Theodor J. Stewart  Simon French  Jesus Rios
Affiliation:1. Manchester Business School, The University of Manchester, Manchester M15 6PB, UK;2. Department of Statistical Sciences, University of Cape Town, Rondebosch 7701, South Africa;3. Risk Initiative and Statistical Consultancy Unit, Department of Statistics, University of Warwick, Coventry CV4 7AL, UK;4. Business Analytics and Mathematical Sciences, IBM T.J. Watson Research Center, Yorktown Heights, NY, USA
Abstract:
Scenario planning and multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA) are two key management science tools used in strategic planning. In this paper, we explore the integration of these two approaches in a coherent manner, recognizing that each adds value to the implementation of the other. Various approaches that have been adopted for such integration are reviewed, with a primary focus on the process of constructing preferences both within and between scenarios. Biases that may be introduced by inappropriate assumptions during such processes are identified, and used to motivate a framework for integrating MCDA and scenario thinking, based on applying MCDA concepts across a range of “metacriteria” (combinations of scenarios and primary criteria). Within this framework, preferences according to each primary criterion can be expressed in the context of different scenarios. The paper concludes with a hypothetical but non-trivial example of agricultural policy planning in a developing country.
Keywords:Multicriteria decision analysis   Scenario planning   Decision making under uncertainty
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