流动人口的离婚风险:代际差异与影响因素

大规模的人口流动已成为现阶段中国社会的基本特征。人口流动造成的亲子分离、夫妻分居不利于婚姻稳定和家庭发展。文章基于2017年全国流动人口动态监测调查江苏省数据,运用Cox比例风险模型分析流动人口离婚风险的代际差异及其影响因素。实证分析表明流动人口的离婚风险呈现双峰结构特征,离婚风险有代际递增趋势。其中1960年前出生队列的流动人口离婚风险相对较低,未出现明显的"倒U型"特征。1961年至1980年出生队列的流动人口离婚风险存在时间滞后性是造成流动人口离婚风险双峰特征的主要原因。1980年以后出生的流动人口离婚模式表现出"闪婚闪离"的特征。在影响流动人口离婚风险的因素方面,婚后夫妻双方共同流动显著地降低了离婚风险。流动距离对流动人口离婚风险有强化作用,证实了家庭对婚姻的约束作用随流动距离增加而降低。子女因素和核心型流动家庭结构对流动人口离婚风险有显著的抑制作用且抑制作用随着代际兴替而增强。为了维持婚姻稳定,年轻一代流动人口更加重视以婚姻为基础的家庭实践和婚姻在维持家庭功能完整性方面的作用。

Divorce Risk of Migrate:Intergenerational Differences and Influencing Factors

Abstract:At present,large-scale population movements have become the basic characteristics of Chinese society. Parent-child separation and wife-husband separation by population floating are not conducive to marriage stability and family development. Based on the data of Jiangsu Province dynamic monitoring and investigation in 2017,this paper analyzes the intergenerational differences and the influencing factors of the divorce risk of the migrate by using the Cox proportional hazard model. The empirical analysis shows that the overall divorce risk of migrate presents the characteristics of“double peak”structure,and the risk of divorce has an intergenerational increasing trend. The divorce risk of the birth queue before 1960 is relatively low,and there is no obvious“inverted U”feature. The divorce risk of the birth queue in the 1961-1980 years has time lag,which is the main reason for the“double peak”structure of the divorce risk of the migrate. The divorce pattern of migrate who born after 1980 shows the characteristics of“flash”marriage. In terms of the factors affecting the divorce risk of the migrants,the migration distance has a strengthening effect on the divorce risk of them,which confirms that the family’s constraint on marriage is reduced with the increase of the flow distance. The children’s factors and the core family structure have a significant inhibitory effect on the divorce risk of the floating population,and the inhibitory effect increases with the generation of generations. In order to maintain the stability of marriage,young migrants pay more attention to marriage-based family practice and the role of marriage in maintaining the functional integrity of the family.