陕西省工业化、城镇化与农业现代化互动关系的实证研究

运用Johansen协整理论及误差修正模型分析了陕西省1991-2010年工业化、城镇化与农业现代化之间的动态关系。结果显示:陕西"三化"之间存在长期协整关系且呈同向发展态势;短期内工业化和农业现代化水平的提升会阻碍城镇化水平的提高;在滞后两期的情况下,陕西省工业化和城镇化互为格兰杰因果关系;工业化是农业现代化的格兰杰原因,而农业现代化不是工业化的格兰杰原因;城镇化对工业化和农业现代化发展的冲击总体上较为显著,工业化和农业现代化发展对城镇化正向冲击较弱且逐步递减。在此基础上提出了同步推进陕西省"三化"协调发展的政策建议。

Empirical Study on Interactive Relationship between Industrialization, Urbanization and Agro-modernization in Shaanxi Province

This paper analyzes the dynamic relationship between industrialization,urbanization and agro-modernization in Shaanxi province from 1991 to 2010 by using Johansen cointegration test and the Error Correction Model. The result shows that "industrialization ,urbanization and agro-modernization " in Shaanxi province are cointegratedly related in long term and their developmental trends are in the same direction; while in the short run,the development of industrialization and ago-modernization are opposite to urbanization. Under the situation of lagging two periods,industrialization and urbanization in Shaanxi province are showing mutual Granger causality,industrialization is the Granger cause of agro-modernization while agro-modernization is not Granger cause of industrialization. The impulse response and variance decomposition analysis show that the one-time-shock of agro-modernization and industrialization can only cause the small and short-run fluctuation of urbanization,the one-time-shock of urbanization can cause the fluctuation of agro-modernization and industrialization in the study period. Therefore,this paper puts forward several specific policy suggestions on how to push forward coordinated development of"industrialization,urbanization and agro-modernization " in Shaanxi province.