基于Logit模型对中国上市公司治理失效问题的实证研究

上市公司治理失效的案例不胜枚举,治理失效的深层次原因值得思索。我们运用Logit二元选择模型从股权结构、高管激励和董事会治理三方面探寻上市公司治理失效的原因,回归模型拟合效果较好。模型给出的回归结果是国有股比例、法人股比例与公司治理效果成反向变化,社会流通股比例与公司治理效果成正向变化,执行董事的比例表现出与公司治理失效概率显著正相关,董事会治理的其他变量回归没有显著性。结论是我国上市公司可以通过合理安排不同性质的股权结构达到降低公司治理失效的概率,并且董事会的建设需要较大的变革,以使得董事会的运作和管理对公司治理的构建产生更好的效果。

Empirical Study on Governance Failure of China's Listed Companies Based on Logit Model

There are a lot of cases about the governance failure of listed companies, and deep reasons for it deserve careful consideration. This paper uses Logit-Binary choice model to explore the causes for governance failure from the aspects of shareholder structure, incentives for senior management and board governance. The regression model fits well. It is found that each of the state-owned shareholding proportion, or law-person shareholding proportion, is negative to the governance effect, whereas society circulating shareholding proportion is positive to the governance effect; the proportion of executive directors is positive to the probability of governance failure remarkably, but other variables about executive board have no notable correlation. In conclusion, the listed companies in China can reduce the probability of governance failure by arranging the shareholding structure reasonably, and the building of board needs to be reformed to enable the operation and management of board to play a more effective role in corporate governance.