碳中和目标下中国碳排放路径研究

气候变化是当今人类面临的重大全球性挑战。中国是第一大碳排放国，在全球气候治理中起着关键作用。继2015年气候变化巴黎大会之后，中国在2020年联合国大会一般性辩论和气候雄心峰会等重要会议上，首次提出了争取2030年前碳达峰，2060年前碳中和，2030年碳强度下降65%、非化石能源比重达到25%等中长期战略目标。这一系列里程碑意义的新目标，彰显了中国负责任的大国担当，也是实现中国高质量发展的客观要求。为支撑国家应对气候变化战略实施，围绕碳达峰与碳中和目标，利用自主研发的国家能源技术经济模型（C3IAM/NET），从自下而上的行业视角，研究了中国中长期CO₂排放的总体目标和实现路径；分析了不同经济增速和减排力度情景下，能源系统、碳捕集与封存技术以及碳汇的贡献程度。研究发现:全国CO₂排放量有望于2025年实现达峰，峰值约108亿吨，最晚于2030年达峰。通过能源系统实施不同减排努力，并结合碳捕集与封存技术部署，到2060年，与能源相关的CO₂排放量仍将存在3亿~31亿吨，主要来自电力、钢铁、化工、交通等行业，需要森林、海洋碳汇来吸收。并针对电力、工业、交通、建筑等重点领域和行业提出了建议。

Research on China's CO2 Emission Pathway under Carbon Neutral Target

Climate change is a major global challenge today. As the largest carbon emitter, China plays a key role in global climate governance. Following the Paris Climate Agreement in 2015, China updated and enhanced its medium- and long-term strategic targets at the 2020 UN General Assembly General Debate and Climate Ambition Summit, et al. These targets include trying to achieve carbon peak before 2030, carbon neutrality by 2060, a 65% reduction in carbon intensity by 2030, and a 25% share of non-fossil energy in total energy consumption. This series of new milestone goals demonstrate China’s responsibility as a great economy and are inherent requirements for achieving national high-quality development. In order to support the implementation of the national climate change strategy, this paper focuses on carbon peaking and carbon neutrality targets, and uses C3IAM/NET model to study the CO₂ emission pathway from a bottom-up perspective. Through setting different scenarios composed of different economic growth rates and emission reduction efforts, the responsibilities of energy system, carbon capture and storage and carbon sink are analyzed. We find that national CO₂ emissions are expected to peak at about 10.8 Gt by 2025 at the earliest, or by 2030 at the latest. Through the implementation of different emission reduction efforts by energy system and different scales of carbon capture and storage deployment, the energy-related CO₂ emissions will still exist in the range of 0.3~3.1 Gt by 2060, mainly from the power, steel, chemical, and transportation sectors, and will require forest and ocean carbon sinks to absorb. Finally, some recommendations are put forward for key areas and industries such as power, industry, transportation, and building sectors.