关于人民币升值对治理通货膨胀积极效应的实证分析

本文通过建立经济模型，以人民币汇率、外汇储备以及国际商品价格作为变量，对人民币升值与国内通货膨胀之间关系进行了协整分析，得出了从长期看人民币升值与国内通货膨胀保持着稳定的负相关关系，即人民币升值会导致国内通货膨胀回落的结论，并根据实证分析数据，分析了人民币升值与否是当前通货膨胀生成及回落的重要原因。同时，文章提出治理外汇推动型通货膨胀，应以调整对外经济政策为主，以紧缩性货币政策为辅的政策建议。

The Positive Effects of the Appreciation of RMB on Curbing Inflation

By employing economic models and using variables of RMB exchange rate, foreign-exchange reserves, and international commodity prices, this paper makes co-integration analysis on the relationship between the appreciation of RMB and domestic inflation, and thus reaches the conclusion that in the long run, there exists a stable negative correlation between the two — the appreciation of RMB will lead to the fall of inflation. It then makes empirical analysis on the cause of the rise and fall of current inflation. Finally it suggests that we should mainly rely on adjusting foreign economic policy, supplemented by tightening monetary policy so as to curb inflation pushed by foreign exchange reserves.