Sensitivity analysis in a multidimensional demographic projection model with a two-sex algorithm

"Formulas are derived for the effect that a slight change in the occurrence/exposure rate of the multidimensional projection model has on the elements of the population vector. The projection model classifies the population by sex, age, and marital status. The model includes a two-sex algorithm in order to ensure consistency between numbers of male and female marriages, number of divorces for the two sexes, and new widows (widowers) and deceased spouses. The sensitivity functions and elasticities are applied to data from the Netherlands for the period 1980-1984. The results indicate that marriage market mechanisms, in particular competition and substitution effects, are reasonably well modelled."