黑龙江省农业生产与经济增长关系的实证研究

为探讨黑龙江省农业生产与经济增长之间的关系,选取1952—2006年黑龙江省历年农业产值和全省生产总值序列进行单位根检验和协整检验,结果表明二者之间存在着长期稳定的动态均衡关系,农业产值每增加1%,将促进经济增长1.61%;误差修正模型表明,农业生产的短期变化对经济增长有显著的正效应,如果本期的经济增长偏离长期均衡值,那么到下一时期这一偏离度将有29%得以纠正;G ranger因果关系检验表明,二者之间存在着双向的G ranger因果关系,黑龙江省农业生产和经济增长互为原因,相互促进;脉冲响应函数分析和方差分解的结果进一步表明,黑龙江省农业生产对经济增长的贡献较显著。

Research on the Relationship between Agricultural Production and Economic Growth in Heilongjiang Province

In order to discuss the relationship between agricultural production and economic growth in Heilongjiang Province,this paper makes the unit root rest and the co-integration test according to the corresponding data from 1952 to 2006 in Heilongjiang Province.The results show that there is a long-term stable equilibrium relationship between agricultural production and economic growth.If the agricultural production increases by 1%,the economy would increase by 1.61%.The error correction model shows that the short-term fluctuation of agricultural production would cause the positive effects of the economy.If the economy deviates from the long-balanced value,it would be adjusted by 29% next year.The Granger causality test shows that there exits two-way Granger causality between agricultural production and economic growth which promotes each other.The impulse response function and variance decomposition show that agricultural production plays an important role on economic growth.