独生子女比例、婚育意愿变动对未来政策生育率的影响

苏州市是我国计划生育政策执行得最早、最严格的地区之一,也是我国经济最为发达的地区之一.目前苏州市第一代独生子女大规模进入婚育年龄,使得政策生育率自然升高,同时经济的迅猛发展使得独生子女的婚姻观念发生深刻的变化.本文试探将婚育人口独生子女比例、婚育意愿等因素纳入预测模型,以期使得预测方法和结论更加准确.文章认为,未来15年苏州政策生育率上升0.415,而考虑婚育意愿后,现实的生育率上升仅0.23,终身生育率仍在1.5个以下,人口再生产将长期处于低生育水平.

The Influence of the Only-Child Percentage and Their Childbearing Desires on the Future Fertility Rate

Suzhou is one of the districts where the policy of family planning was carried out earliest and most strictly with a comparatively developed economy.At present,most of the first generation of only-child in Suzhou have been into the marriage and childbearing age,which consequently promote the policy fertility rate in one hand,and on the other hand the rapid economic development has changed greatly the only child generation's ideas about marriage and fertility.This article,taking the percentage of only child at marriage,childbearing age and their childbearing wish into account,builds up a prediction model in order to find a way for more appropriate method and more accurate results.The findings are the follows: The policy fertility rate in Suzhou will rise by 0.415 in the coming 15 years,while the actual fertility rate will only rise by 0.23 if the childbearing willing is considered.The lifelong fertility rate will keep below 1.5,thus the low population fertility level will continue.