试论美国反恐与中东局势

美国巧遇恐怖袭击与中东地区关联深厚，而反恐行动更是为本已动荡的巴以局势增添了新的变数。反恐利益主导下的美国中东政策的不稳定性客观上加剧了中东局势的动荡。随着反恐行动的后续发展，伊拉克成为新打击对象，中东的两大热点--巴以争端和伊拉克问题在反恐框架中相互交织，中东局势未来走向与美国反恐息息相关。在可预见的将来，美国中东政策将在确保中东根本利益不受影响的前提下，根据反恐需要做相应调整，而巴以冲突将维持可控制的低烈度状态。

Anti-terrorism Campaign and the Situation of Middle East

There was a deeply inherent relevance between the terrorist attacks on America and the situation of Middle East before Sept. 11 2001. The war against terrorism added a new variable to the already turbulent Middle East. The uncertainty of the U.S. policy toward Middle East drivenby anti-terrorism war actually intensified the instability of this region. With the further development of anti-terrorism, Iraq is going to be the next target after Al Qaeda in Afghanistan. Two hotspots in Middle East - the Palestinian-Israeli conflict and the Iraq crisis - interlock under the framework of anti-terrorism. Under the background of international action on terrorism, the future situation of Middle East would be mainly dependent on American anti-terrorism strategy. In the foreseeable future, the Bush administration would modify its Middle East policy to some extent on the condition of ensuring its fundamental interests in this region, and the Palestinian-Israeli conflict would be kept in a controllable low-density level.