“新战略”与美国在伊拉克的困境

“新战略”的出台并不是偶然的因素,而是美国国内“退出伊拉克战略”之争、伊拉克教派结构恶化的情势、伊朗核问题恶性发展等多维力量在伊拉克地缘政治博弈的结果。“新战略”历史性地继承了布什主义的战略认知和基本理念,其基本要旨在于将伊拉克纳入美国中东战略轴心的地缘政治范畴。由于“新战略”实施的政治文化缺失,美军陷入“驻留”、“退出”和“增兵”伊拉克的多重困境。“新战略”言词空洞,缺乏硬性操作指标,是布什在国内关于撤军问题争论日趋激烈、伊拉克教派仇杀日益严重之时做出的“减压”之举。其成功前景黯淡,并成为布什政府遥遥无期的迷梦。

The New Iraq strategy and U.S. Predicament in Iraq

The new Iraq strategy inherits the strategic congnition and fundamental idea of the Bush Doctrine. The basic goal is to integrate Iraq into U.S. Middle Eastern strategic axis. Owing to the absence of political culture in the application of the strategy, the United States is bogged down in the struggle among staying in Iraq, withdrawal or reinforcement. The new strategy is put forward to “reduce pressure”. The prospect of its success is dim and the strategy may become an elusive dream of the Bush Administration.