中国大豆产业安全度初步评估

作为重要的油料作物,大豆产业在国民经济中的作用不容低估。自1996年中国由大豆净出口国变为进口国,大豆进口量逐年递增,高对外依存度使中国大豆产业安全状况令人关注。运用主成份分析法,选取国内环境、国际竞争力、对外依存度三个一级指标,对中国大豆产业安全状况进行初步评估。结果显示,1996—1999年中国大豆产业的安全度全部为正值,中国大豆产业处于安全状态;除2002年外,2000—2010年中国大豆产业的安全度全部为负值,中国大豆产业处于不安全状态,2009年中国大豆产业安全度达到最低点为-1.91,2010年有所缓和为-1.61。

A Preliminary Assessment of the Safety of China’s Soybean Industry

Since soybean is an important oil crop,the role of soybean industry should not be underestimated in the national economy.Since 1996,China has changed from a net exporter of soybean to an importer and the volume of imports has increased year by year.Due to the high external dependence degree,the security situation of China’s soybean industry has become a concern.Using principal component analysis and selected three first-level indicators——the domestic environment,international competitiveness and external dependence,this paper conducted a preliminary assessment of the security situation of China’s soybean industry.The results showed that the safety degree of the industry was positive,indicating it was in a relatively safe state in years from 1996 to 1999.Except for year 2002,it was negative from 2000 to 2010,indicating China’s soybean industry was in an insecure state.In 2009,the safety degree reached the lowest point-1.91;and in 2010,it was eased and returned to-1.61.Finally,relevant policy recommendations are proposed on the safety of China’s soybean industry and sustainable development.