中国企业海外并购经济后果研究——基于联想并购IBM PC业务的案例分析

为适应市场发展和满足自身利益诉求,2004年12月8日联想宣布并购IBMPC业务,作为中国海外并购最大"赢家"的联想赢得了全球的关注和中国企业的殷殷期待。相比TCL、京东方、明基等海外并购的经济后果集体失语而言,联想能否逃出并购的赢家诅咒?本文将分别从以下两个角度来研究联想并购产生的经济后果。其一,利用资本市场的数据实证检验联想并购和整合的经济后果;其二,对比分析联想并购前后财务指标变动趋势及市场份额变动趋势研究并购的经济后果。本文研究发现,联想目前仍然没有逃出"赢家诅咒"的宿命,成败目前尚无最终定论。尽管整合面临很大的挑战和风险,但中国企业仍不会停止海外并购的尝试,全球化已经成为中国企业面对的不争事实,为规避并购负面经济后果,本文提出了政策性建议。

A Research on the Economic Outcome of China's Enterprises' Oversea Merger:a Case Study Based on Lenovo's Merging the PC Business of IBM

In order to meet the demand of market development and satisfy the demand of self interest,on December 8,2004,Lenovo announced its merging of the PC business of IBM and became the biggest "winner" in China's overseas merging and won the attention of the world and eager expectation from China's enterprises.Compared with TCL,BOE,BENQ and other companies,which have also carried out oversea merging and on which people have made no comment in terms of economic results,can Lenovo,as one winner,escape from curses heaped on other winners in merging? In this paper,we will,from the following two aspects,make a study on the economic outcome of Lenovo's merging:(1)using the data on capital markets to examine the economic consequences of Lenovo's merging and integration,(2)using the comparison between and the analyses of the change trend in financial indexes before Lenovo's merging and that after the merging to research the economic effect of this merging.By our study,we have discovered that,up to now,Lenovo has not avoided the fate by which "winners will incur curses",and that,up to the present,the final conclusion has not been drawn as to whether Lenovo will succeed or fail.Despite of great challenges and risks in the process of integration,China's enterprises will not stop attempts to merge overseas,because globalization has been an incontestable fact China's enterprises must face;in order for China's enterprises to stay away from negative economic outcome resulting from merging,I have in this article put forward my suggestions about related policies.