| 证券分析师盈余预测羊群行为的理性分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 孙东梅,姚禄仕,王丽娜.证券分析师盈余预测羊群行为的理性分析[J].合肥工业大学学报(社会科学版),2014(2):37-41. |
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| 作者姓名： | 孙东梅 姚禄仕 王丽娜 |
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| 作者单位： | 合肥工业大学管理学院,合肥230009 |
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| 基金项目： | 第24期上证联合研究计划课题2 |
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| 摘 要： | 由于复杂的利益冲突和信息不对称,证券分析师羊群行为对当前全球资本市场规范发展带来了新的挑战。文章以2010-2012年间中国证券市场上分析师对上市银行发布的盈余预测样本为研究对象,实证分析了证券分析师羊群行为对盈余预测准确性的影响。研究表明,证券分析师在盈余预测中的羊群行为存在,并且羊群倾向程度越高,盈余预测的准确性越高;分析师盈余预测的羊群行为是一种理性羊群行为。
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| 关 键 词： | 证券分析师 盈余预测 羊群行为 |
Analysis of the Rationality of Herd Behavior of Securities Analysts in Earnings Forecast |
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| SUN Dong-mei,YAO Lu-shi,WANG Li-na.Analysis of the Rationality of Herd Behavior of Securities Analysts in Earnings Forecast[J].Journal of Hefei University of Technology(Social Sciences),2014(2):37-41. |
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| Authors: | SUN Dong-mei YAO Lu-shi WANG Li-na |
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| Institution: | (School of Management, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei 230009, China) |
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| Abstract: | Faced with complicated interest conflicts and asymmetric information, the herd behavior of the securities analysts brings new challenges to the global capital market development. Taking the initial samples of earnings forecast of listed banks released by securities analysts from 2010 to 2012 in Chinese securities market as the research object, an empirical analysis of the influence of herd behavior of securities analysts on the accuracy of earnings forecast is carried out. The results show that the herd behavior of securities analysts in earnings forecast exists, and the higher the degree of herding, the higher the accuracy of earnings forecast. The herd behavior of securities analysts in earnings forecast is a rational herd behavior. |
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| Keywords: | securities analyst earnings forecast herd behavior |
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