安徽省城市化、工业化与城乡收入差距的动态关系研究

以向量自回归模型为基础,运用安徽省1985—2009年数据,考察城市化、工业化与城乡收入差距之间的长期均衡关系和短期动态变化规律。研究结果表明,城市化在短期内有助于缩小城乡收入差距,但长期来看扩大了城乡收入差距;工业化在短期内扩大了城乡收入差距,但长期来说这种负面影响逐渐消失,最终将缩小城乡收入差距。据此,提出缩小城乡收入差距的政策建议。

On the Dynamic Relationship among Urbanization, Industrialization and Urban Rural Income Gap in Anhui Province

Based on the vector autoregression model,by using time series data from 1985 to 2009 of Anhui,the paper aims at investigating the long-term equilibrium relationship and short-term dynamic changes among urbanization,industrialization and urban-rural income gap.The results show that urbanization and industrialization are the causes of variation of urban-rural income gap,industrialization are the cause of urbanization,and the urbanization have no remarkable impacts on industrialization;urbanization would help narrow the urban-rural income gap in short term,but in the long run it has expanded urban-rural income gap;industrialization has expanded urban-rural income gap in short term,but in the long run such negative effects would gradually disappear,and industrialization would narrow urban-rural income gap eventually.According to the above analysis,policy advices on narrowing urban-rural income gap are proposed.