市场机会、进入决策与战略性并购:基于成长期权理论的一个案例研究

基于净现值的进入模型是对市场均衡状态下企业进入决策的一个描述.但在现实中,不均衡却是市场的一种常态,因此企业无从进行基于净现值的进入决策.本文首先建立了一个基于成长期权价值的进入模型,并指出在成长期权式的市场机会(即商业前景向好)出现时,企业的最优进入时机并不一定是单调的.而是依赖于进入成本、机会成本与成长期权价值三个变量的时序变动模式.这意味着企业家(创业者)不仅要在动态的市场环境中识别成长期权式的投资项目(创业项目),而且要能根据企业当前业务所处的生命周期阶段审慎地选择进入时机.鉴于已被证实的巨大商业前景,本文将互联网产业看作一项成长期权,并基于成长期权理论对微软的战略性并购进行了分析.

Market Opportunity, Entry Decision and Strategic Acquisition:A Case Study Based on the Theory of Growth Options

Entry decisions based on NPV models are often used to model the entry of firms to a market that is in equilibrium. However, in reality disequilibrium is a normal state for markets, so the NPVbased model fails to work. We construct an entry model based on the growth option and conclude that optimal entry timing is not necessarily a monotonic function of the value of growth option, but is contingent on entry costs, opportunity costs and the value of growth option in any given time period. This indicates that ...