中国棉花补贴方式的最优选择——基于主成分回归的实证分析

运用主成分回归方法研究了中国棉花的最优补贴方式。分析表明，从经济刺激效应的角度上看，中国棉花最优的补贴方式应是农药补贴，而并非种子补贴。其原因在于中国棉花产区虫害发生频繁，灾害严重。因而农药是保证棉花生产的最主要的因素。除了农药补贴外，实施种子补贴、化肥补贴、机械补贴和灌溉补贴对中国棉花生产也具有正面的影响作用。为此，政府应设立专项研发资金，鼓励科研院所与企业研发、生产高效环保农药。同时，应进行棉花品种优化改良，提高棉花防虫抗病能力。并加大对棉花产区害虫综合防治预报工作，建立棉花害虫监测与预警机制。在国家财力允许的情况下，政府应同时对种子、化肥、农药、机械和灌溉实施组合补贴。

The Optimal Subsidy of Cotton Production in China --Empirical Analysis Based on Principal Component Regression Method

This paper makes a research on the optimal subsidy of cotton production by applying the principal component regression method. The analysis indicates that, from the view of economic stimulus effect, pesticide subsidy, rather than seed subsidy, is the optimal subsidy for cotton production in china. The reason lies in the frequent and serious insect pest disasters in cotton-producing areas in China. Therefore, pesticide subsidy is the most crucial factor to promise a good cotton production. Besides pesticide subsidy,seed subsidy, fertilizer subsidy,machinery subsidy and irrigation subsidy all have positive influence on China＇s cotton production. So government should set up special research fund to encourage institutes and enterprises to research and develop highly effective and environmentally friendly pesticide. At the same time, the researches to improve cotton variety for better pest-proof and anti-disease ability should be carried out along with the effort for better prediction and prevention of insect disaster by establishing cotton pest monitoring and predicting system. Last but not least, if the state finance allows, a subsidy combination of seed, fertilizer, pesticide,machinery and irrigation subsidy should be implemented.