劳动力成本上升对我国水果产业的影响——以梨产业为例

目前我国劳动力成本上升趋势明显,在农业劳动力不断转移、刘易斯"拐点"出现、货币供应不断增多和高通货膨胀的背景下,农业有效劳动力供给已慢慢减少,人工成本迅速上升成为水果生产中不可回避的现实问题。基于此,本文利用1990—2010年宏观统计数据,构建经济计量模型实证分析劳动力成本上升对我国梨产业的影响,结果表明,劳动力成本上升对我国梨面积区域变动具有明显的负效应,且对产业集聚的影响存在显著的地区差异;基于水果产业的自然经济属性,劳动力成本上升对环渤海、长江中下游及云贵地区、西北地区的影响逐次降低。最后根据实证结果,提出应大力培育发展水果省力化栽培模式,降低成本;把握水果布局变化规律,适时适地引导各种资源向优势产区集中,最终实现优质优价。

Impact of Rising Labor Cost on China’ s Fruit Industry:A Case Study of Pear Industry

At present,labor cost in China is rising as the supply of agriculture labor reduces as a result of the shift of agriculture labor force, the appearance of Lewis＂ turning point＂, the increase of money supply and the high inflation.The rapidly rising labor cost has become an unavoidable problem confronting the fruit production.An econometric model was constructed to analyze the impact of rising labor cost on the China＇ s fruit industry via using macroeconomic statistics from 1990 to 2010.The result shows that rising labor cost has a significant negative effect on the changes of the pear-growing area. Besides, significant the regional differences are found in terms of its impact on industrial agglomeration. Considering the natural economic attributes of the fruit industry, rising labor cost is of successively lower impact on Bohai Rim, the Yangtze River and Northwest Territories respectively.Finally ,it was proposed that efforts should be made to foster the development of labor-saving cultivation mode, reduce cost, grasp the layout changes ble areas according to the local conditions in order to of fruits, and allocate various resources to more favoraachieve competitive prices.