农户感知与适应气候变化的有效性分析——来自江苏省水稻种植户的调查研究

基于2012年江苏省水稻主产区农户关于气候变化的感知、适应行为及生产投入产出的调研数据,利用交互式回归模型,分析农户就气候变化的感知与适应行为对水稻经济收益的影响,并判断感知和适应行为的有效性。结果表明,农户对气候变化存在感知和采取适应行为,对水稻种植的经济收益均会产生积极影响;基于感知基础上的适应行为对水稻经济收益的影响存在差异性,"增加化肥、农药等物质投入"是农户选择最多的适应行为,但其会显著降低水稻经济收益,而农户选择"使用新技术"程度增加1%,可显著提高水稻成本收益比例约0.24%,且"调整作物种植时间"和"选择新品种"也会对水稻经济收益产生正面影响,"修建基础设施"和"改善农田周边环境"则需要来自政府的财政支持。研究认为,政府需要加强农民气候变化知识和适应行为的宣传、培训与教育,同时加强农业技术推广,以达到农户科学合理的应对气候变化、农业生产和稳产增收目标。

Effectiveness of Farmers’ Perception & Coping Behaviors with Climate Change:A Research Based on Survey among Rice Planting Households in Jiangsu

Based on the survey in 2012 of farmers＇ perception and adaptive behaviors to climate change combined with input-output data in main rice producing areas of Jiangsu Province, this paper analyzed the impact of farmers＇ perception＆adaptive behavior on rice economic benefits by the method of interactive regression model in order to determine the validity of their perception and adaptive behaviors. The results showed that farmers＇ perception ＆ adaptive behaviors to climate change had a positive effect on rice econonlic gains while economic impact of adaptive behavior based on perception varied.＂ Increasing investment in substances like fertilizers and pesticides＂ was the most commonly used way, which would significantly reduce economic benefits of rice.Cost-benefit ratio of rice would increase 0.24% with every percent of increase in the＂ use of new technolo- gies＂ .＂Adjusting the crop time＂ and＂ selecting new varieties＇would also have a positive impact on the economic benefits of rice.In addition,＂ building infrastructure＂ and＂ improving the environment surrounding the farmland＂ were in need of financial support from the government. Finally, this paper suggested that government should strengthen the farmers＇ knowledge of climate change and adaptive behavior by training and education as well as by strengthening the promotion of agricultural technology, in order to ensure scientific and rational response to climate change and to increase agricultural production and farmers＇ income.