中国城市流动人口影响因素的定量研究

利用公安部 1996年流动人口统计数据和国家统计局 1996年国民经济和社会发展统计数据 ,对中国城市流动人口的影响因素进行研究发现 :(1)城市流动人口规模与市区从业人口、市区个体劳动者人数、市区国内生产总值、市区工业总产值、市区利税总额、市区固定资产投资总额、市区社会消费品零售总额、市区实际利用外资金额和市区职工年平均工资相关显著 ;与市区人口、市区非农业人口、市区第二产业从业人员比重、市区第三产业从业人员比重、市区百元资金实现利税和市区客运总量相关不显著 ;与地区人口呈负相关。 (2 )流动人口超过 5 0万以上的城市 ,其流动人口规模与市区的社会经济因素回归效果较好 ,回归方程可以用于预测

Quantitative analysis on influential factors of urban transient population in China

Based on the floating population data from the Ministry of Public Security of China and social- economic data from The Statistical Bureau of China, some factors of floating population in China are analyzed: 1) The number of employed persons in city, number of self-employed in individuals in city, GDP, gross domestic product, total revenue, total investment, annual average wages of staff and workers are notably relative to the size of urban floating population Urban districts population, urban districts non-agriculture population, proportion of employed persons in secondary industry in city, proportion of employed persons in tertiary industry in city, profits tax per hundred RMB in city districts, and passenger traffic in urban districts are notably relative to the size of urban floating population Area population is negative to the size of urban floating population 2) For the cities whose floating population excesses 5 million, there exists a linear relationship between the total floating population and urban social- economic factors