断层连通概率计算及其应用

断层连通概率法结合地质特征及断裂附近油气显示级别、通过各项参数计算定量评价断层开启程度。详细介绍了连通概率法所涉及的各项参数的计算方法，利用准噶尔盆地莫索湾地区侏罗系三工河组相关资料进行了实际参数的计算与选取，建立了经过实际数据检验的断层连通概率模型，利用该模型对断层启闭性进行了定量评价和油气藏解释，认为盆4井三工河组油气显示差的主要原因是深部断层连通性差，油气向上运移困难；而盆6井三工河组油气显示较好的主要原因是深部断层开启程度较高，有利于油气向上运移，而浅部断层开启程度差，有利于油气保存。

Economics of Oil and Gas Related Crime Prevention

Fault connective probability is a method of evaluating quantitatively the fault opening degree through the calculation of relevant parameters and the combination of the actual geological conditions with the show of gas and oil near the fault.There are many factors affecting the fault opening and sealing capacity.In this paper，the calculation method of factors involved in fault connective probability is described.The fault connective probability model is established through the choice and calculation of actual parameters by using the associated data of Lower Jurassic Sangonghe Formation in Mosuowan area of Junggar Basin，which is tested by the actual data and proved to fit for the area.The fault opening and sealing capacity of Pen 4 well fault is evaluated quantitatively with this model from horizontal to vertical and then the oil-gas reservoir is interrogated.It is explained that in Pen 4 well there is weak show of oil and gas in Sangonghe Formation due to poor connectivity in deep depth，which is not in favor of the migration of oil and gas upward.However，in Pen 6 well，there is better show of oil and gas in Sangonghe Formation due to well connectivity in deep depth，which is favorable for the migration of oil and gas，and poor connectivity in shallow depth that is helpful for the preservation of oil and gas.The application of Fault connective probability in the analysis of the fault opening and sealing capacity in Mosuowan area of Junggar Basin has achieved very good result.