农村金融发展与农业经济发展的关系研究——以山东为例

采用1986²009年的数据分析了农村金融发展与农业经济发展之间的关系。研究表明,山东省农村金融发展与农业总产值表示的农业经济发展之间存在着一种稳定的均衡关系。格兰杰检验结果显示,农村金融结构和农村金融效率是农业经济发展的格兰杰原因;农业经济发展是农业金融深化率的格兰杰原因。进一步协整分析发现,从长期来看,农村金融结构和农村金融效率对农业经济发展起着正向的促进作用,而农业金融深化率却与农业经济的发展呈现了反向关系。从误差修正模型的分析结果来看,农村金融结构和农村金融效率的短期变动对农业经济的发展有着正向影响。综合而言,山东省农村金融的发展促进了农业经济的发展,但在一些方面对农业经济的发展有抑制作用。

Relationship between Rural Financial Development and Agricultural Economic Development

This paper analyzes the relationship between the rural financial development and the development of the agricultural economy by using 1986--2009 year＇s data in Shandong Province. Study shows that there is a stable equilibrium relationship between rural financial development and agricultural output and agricultural economic development. Granger test shows that the rural financial structure of agriculture and rural financial efficiency are Granger cause of rural economic development agricultural economy is Granger cause of agricultural financial deepening rate. Co--integration analysis finds that the rural financial structure of agriculture and agriculture financial efficiency play a positive role in promoting rural economic development in the long term, but agricultural financial deepening rate presents a reverse relationship to agricultural economic development. From the error correction model analysis, it reveals that the rural financial structure and efficiency of rural finance have a positive influence on changing in agricultural economic development in short--term. Overall, the development rural finance promotes the development of the agricultural economy, but the development of the agricul tural economy was inhibited in some aspects.