Flipping and ex post aggregation |
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| Authors: | Matthias Hild Richard Jeffrey Mathias Risse |
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| Affiliation: | (1) Darden Graduate School of Business Administration, University of Virginia, P. O. Box 6550, Charlottesville, VA 22906, USA (e-mail: matthias@hild.org), US;(2) Department of Philosophy, Princeton University Princeton, NJ 08544, USA (e-mail: dickjeff@princeton.edu), US;(3) John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA (e-mail: mathias_risse@harvard.edu), US |
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| Abstract: | We show that Bayesian ex post aggregation is unstable with respect to refinements. Suppose a group of Bayesians use ex post aggregation. Since it is a joint problem, each agent's problem is captured by the same model, but probabilities and utilities may vary. If they analyze the same situation in more detail, their refined analysis should preserve their preferences among acts. However, ex post aggregation could bring about a preference reversal on the group level. Ex post aggregation thus depends on how much information is used and may keep oscillating (“flipping”) as one keeps adding more information. Received: 16 April 2002/Accepted: 27 May 2002 |
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