中国人口老龄化的地区差异分析

本文基于1990—2013年省际面板数据，以老年人口比重作为老龄化指标，采用基尼系数分解方法和Kernel密度估计方法，实证分析了中国人口老龄化的地区差异及其动态演进过程。研究结果表明：中国人口老龄化在地区分布上呈现出明显的非均衡特征；基尼系数测算及其分解结果表明，人口老龄化的地区差异总体上呈现波动缩小趋势；2004年以前，地区间差距和超变密度交替成为总体地区差异的主要来源，2004年以后，超变密度成为总体差异的主要来源。 Kernel密度估计显示，老龄化程度不断加深，地区差异呈波动趋势。

An Analysis of Regional Differences in the Aging Population of China

This paper which based on the 1990-2013 provincial panel data, the proportion of elderly population as an aging index,adopt Gini coefficient decomposition method and Kernel Density estimation method, real evidence analyze regional dif-ferences in the aging population of China and Dynamic evoluation process. Research results show that the aging of the popula-tion in China shows significant imbalance in the regional distribution. Gini coefficient measurement and its decomposition re-sults show that the regional differences of aging population generallly show the trend of flutuation. Before 2004,the inter re-gional disparity and the change of the super variable density become the main source of regional differences. After 2004,the super variable density becomes the main differences in the total. Kernel Density estimation shows that the degree of aging continues to deepen and regional differences in the trend of repeated flutuations.