大型国有企业风险预警系统构建研究

现阶段,主要大型国有企业风险管理手段相对简单,应对策略较多的采取"事后弥补",应对方法一般是静态的、局部的、分散的,风险预警水平有限。结合大型国有企业特点,可以构建出一套包括制定预警计划、识别警源、风险评估、预报警度、警情处理、效果评价等六个关键环节的风险预警系统,从而实现全局性和系统性的识别、诊断、预警风险变化趋势和影响,有效提升防御与规避风险的能力,为领导决策提供准确、真实、客观的数据支持。多数大型国有企业风险预警系统建设还处于初级阶段,后续要进一步拓展风险预警系统的外延和内涵,从重大风险预警向业务风险预警拓展,从运用现有能力条件开展预警向建立全方位、立体化的风险预警系统拓展,应着重在以下几个方面展开探索:进一步探索风险预警系统的信息化实现;进一步完善关键风险指标体系;进一步研究风险预警能力建设,建立起风险管控为导向的兼具前瞻性和动态性的及时有效的预警机制。

On the Risk Warning System Construction of Large State-owned Enterprises

At present, the risk management measures in large state-owned enterprises are relatively simple. In general, they are mainly making-up countermeasures which are static, partial, scattered, and limited. Based on large state-owned enterprises＇ characteristics, a set of risk warning system can be constructed, including six key parts such as warning plan, identity of risk origin, evaluation of risk, forecast of risk scale, operation of risk, and evaluation of effect, to identify, diagnose, and foretell the tendency and influence of risks overall and systematically, as a result of which the ability of defending and avoiding risks can be improved so that accurate and objective data can be provided for decision-making. At the same time, the construction of risk warning system in large state-owned enterprises is still in the preliminary stage, which requires the further extension from major risk warnings to business ones, and from warnings based on available conditions to comprehensive and three-dimensional ones. In order to achieve it, the following aspects should be explored to construct foretelling and dynamic warning mechanism which is oriented by risk management and control. First, the risk warning system should be information-oriented. Second, the key risk index system should be perfected. Third, the ability of risk warning should be constructed further.