我国房地产政策宏观分析的模型与方法——以1998-2009年房地产政策为例

十余年来,我国政府房地产政策几经变迁：既有经济手段,也有法律和行政等手段;既有阶段性的渐进,也有急剧的逆转。常用的政策模型,如理性模型、渐进模型、垃圾桶模型等都不能很好解释这一长时间段的政策演变,而间断平衡模型能够给予较为满意的解释。房地产政策是政治、经济、文化,乃至社会心理共同作用的结果,任何单一因素的说明都无法正确解释房地产政策。我国政府对房地产的管理与调控,与本国的国情密切相关,必须从这一实际出发多视角地考察,才能对相关政策给予合理解释。

Models and Methods of the Macro-analysis of China's Real Estate Policy: A Case Study of the Real Estate Policy in 1998-2009

In the past ten years, our government policy changed in real estate: a means of economic as well as legal and administrative means, both progressive stages and a sharp reversal. Commonly used policy models, such as the rational model, a progressive model, and the trash model can not explain the policy section of this long evolution, and intermittent -a more balanced model can give a satisfactory explanation. Real estate policy is the result of political, economic, cultural, social and psychological as well ...