房价波动、货币政策与中国社会福利损失

本文建立并采用贝叶斯方法估计了一个包含普通消费品部门与房地产部门的多部门NKMP-DSGE模型，运用脉冲响应函数与贝叶斯冲击分解研究了外生冲击对于产出、通胀以及房价膨胀的影响。研究表明，宽松的货币政策在推动我国房价上涨中扮演了主要作用。基于Woodford^1]的方法，本文通过政策试验分析了不同政策机制的社会福利损失，结果发现同时对房地产供给以及房价做出反应的政策机制具有相对较小的社会福利损失，因此在房地产市场调控中同时增加房地产供给和抑制房价过快上涨可能具有更好的效果。最后，基于我国现实数据，本文估算了通胀与房价膨胀背景下中国真实的社会福利损失，估算的结果对于进一步考察通胀与房价膨胀背景下中国最优货币政策具有重要的现实意义。

Housing Price Fluctuation,Monetary Policy and the Social Welfare Loss in China

A dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model including ordinary consumption goods and housing sector is constructed to analyze the housing price inflation and the welfare loss in China. The result of impulse response function and Bayesian shock decomposition shows that monetary policy plays the most significant role in promoting the housing price fluctuation in China. The Based on the social welfare loss function with is introduced by the method of Woodford^1],policy experiment is carried out. The result reveals that the policy regime targeting housing sector supply and housing price inflation may cause much less welfare loss, that is, increase the housing supply and regulate the housing price, which is helpful for the regulation of housing market. Furthermore, the actual social welfare loss is computed, which may be useful to quest for the optimal policy for regulating the housing market.