中国人口转变、人口红利与经济增长的实证

我国人口年龄结构的变动使得劳动负担逐渐下降,这对于储蓄水平的上升和劳动力投入效率的提高具有显著的促进作用;我国劳动负担比与经济增长呈现出明显的负相关,劳动负担比每下降1个百分点,经济增长将提高1.06个百分点,在过去的30年里劳动负担降低累计带来的经济增长占总增长的27.23%。通过计量检验证明人口年龄结构变动所产生的促进经济增长的人口红利是存在的。由此我们推断,由于未来的人口年龄结构变动趋向人口老龄化,劳动负担逐步上升,这将会对未来的经济增长造成制约。利用未来10～20年时间较轻的劳动负担的机遇期,我们应当建立良好的教育、人力资本投资、社会保障等方面的制度以及制定积极的人口政策,调整当前生育政策、适时执行宏观经济政策(劳动就业政策)来应对已发生的、正在进行的人口变动,使我国的经济继续保持强有力的增长态势。

An Empirical Study of Demographic Transition, Demographic Dividend and Economic Growth in China

This paper analyzes the demographic transition,the relationship between changes in population age structure and economic growth in China which used econometric model.The results show: with the change in population age structure in China,China's labor burden decreased gradually.This would promote savings level and the efficiency of labor input.Dependency ratio and economic growth has shown a clear negative effect.Labor burden fell by one percentage point,China's economic growth will increase 1.06 percentage points.In the past 30 years,reducing the labor burden of the contribution to economic growth is 27.23%.Through the measurement test proved the existence of the demographic dividend.From this we infer: the future changes in population age structure will tend to aging.Labor burden will be gradually increased.This will restrict economic growth in the future.Use less labor burden of the opportunities over the next 10-20 years.We should establish a good educational system,human capital investment system,social security system.We should also develop an active population policy,adjust the current fertility policy,implement macroeconomic policies(employment policy) at the appropriate time.Then we could respond the ongoing demographic changes.So that China's economy maintained strong growth momentum.