碳排放约束与农业全要素生产率增长及分解

针对传统ML指数不具有传递性特征并且面临潜在线性规划无解的问题，将Global Malmquist－Luenberger生产率指数引入到农业全要素生产率的分析框架中，并利用中国31个省市1993—2013年的面板数据测算了碳排放约束条件下农业全要素生产率的增长及其分解。研究表明：是否考虑农业碳排放因素会对农业全要素生产率的测算产生较大影响，忽略碳排放约束会高估区域农业全要素生产率，测算结果可能导致政策偏误；在碳排放约束条件下，中国农业发展普遍存在效率恶化与技术进步并存的局面，农业全要素生产率增长主要由技术进步贡献，农业技术效率不增反减；中国农业全要素生产率增长存在显著的区域差异，东部地区要明显优于其他地区；中国农业大省在碳排放约束条件下未能表现出特别明显的农业优势，农业大省并非农业强省。

Growth and Decomposition of Agricultural Total Factor Productivity in China Under Carbon Emission Constraints

This paper takes the leading in introducing the Global Malmquist Luenberger productivity index into research on agricultural total factor productivity, and applies the index to re-estimate the agricultural total factor productivity and its decomposition under carbon emission constraints in Chinese 31 provinces from 1993 to 2013. The results indicate that whether accounting agricultural carbon emission has a significant impact on the calculation of agricultural TFP, ignoring carbon emission constraints will overestimate the regional agricultural TFP growth, the evaluation results may lead to policy errors. The dual situation of agricultural technology progress and technical efficiency degradation exists widely in Chinese agricultural development under carbon emission regulations, technology progress is the main source of regional agricultural TFP growth, and agricultural technical efficiency are decreasing rather than increasing. Regional agricultural TFP growth have significant regional difference, eastern provinces are superior to other regions. Chinese major agricultural provinces have not particularly obvious agricultural advantage than other provinces under carbon emission regulations. Major agricultural provinces are not advancing agricultural provinces.