不确定性与农民专业合作社纵向一体化经营

基于新制度经济学的理论，将合作社不确定性归纳为自然不确定性、生产不确定性、价格不确定性三类，而后分别测量了生产不确定性、自然不确定性、价格不确定性对农民专业合作社纵向一体化经营的影响，结果显示自然不确定性对农民专业合作社纵向一体化经营水平存在较大的显著正向影响。最后基于以上实证研究结果提出合作社应大力提高农业保险参保率以转嫁经营风险和增强稳定度，进而吸引农业企业与之建立战略联盟和推进纵向一体化等政策启示。

Uncertainty and Vertical Integration of Farmer Specialized Cooperatives

This paper concludes the uncertainty of cooperatives into 3 categories including production uncertainty, natural uncertainty and price uncertainty, and we then respectively test the influencing effect of production uncertainty, natural uncertainty and price uncertainty to vertical integration of specialized farmer cooperatives, and get a conclusion that natural uncertainty has significant positive influencing effect on the vertical integration of farmer specialized cooperatives based on the theory of New Institutional Economics. And finally this paper put forward policy suggestions such as cooperative should vigorously improve agricultural insurance rate to shift business risks and enhance stability, so as to attract agricultural companies to establish strategic alliances with them and promote cooperatives' level of vertical integration.