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Confidence distributions applied to propagating uncertainty to inference based on estimating the local false discovery rate: A fiducial continuum from confidence sets to empirical Bayes set estimates as the number of comparisons increases
Authors:David R Bickel
Institution:1. Ottawa Institute of Systems Biology, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada;2. Department of Biochemistry, Microbiology, and Immunology, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada;3. Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada
Abstract:Empirical Bayes estimates of the local false discovery rate can reflect uncertainty about the estimated prior by supplementing their Bayesian posterior probabilities with confidence levels as posterior probabilities. This use of coherent fiducial inference with hierarchical models generates set estimators that propagate uncertainty to varying degrees. Some of the set estimates approach estimates from plug-in empirical Bayes methods for high numbers of comparisons and can come close to the usual confidence sets given a sufficiently low number of comparisons.
Keywords:Coherent fiducial distribution  confidence distribution  empirical Bayes  fiducial inference  foundations of statistics  hierarchical model  interpretation of probability  local false discovery rate  
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