中亚政治转型与经济转轨非对称性发展探析

中亚五国政治转型与经济转轨已经历了20余年的发展历程。尽管在外力影响和内部努力下，采取了多种改革措施，但无论是民主化还是市场化依然未能实现；与同时被卷入第三次民主化浪潮的中东欧国家相比，出现了同途殊归的转型结果。究其原因，不仅是内外因素的制约作用和转型前提条件的缺失，更重要的是，中亚政治转型与经济转轨的非对称性发展态势左右了中亚的转型进程。权威与民主的双重作用使经济转轨面临两难窘境，而缺乏经济基础的民主化在其发展进程中的脆弱性凸显，并最终导致民主政权刚刚建立即向威权政体转变，加之社会经济结构变迁对民主化和市场化产生的影响，使得中亚的转型注定是一个长期的过程。

On the Asymmetrical Development of Political Transformation and Economic Transition in Central Asia

The five Central Asian States in political transition and economic transformation has gone through more than 20 years of development. With external pressure and internal efforts, many reform measures have been taken, but it still fails to become either a democracy or a market economy. Compared with Central and Eastern European countries involved in the third wave of democratization, they followed the same route, but come to different destinations. The reason lies not only in the internal and external factors lack of restrictions and prerequisites of transformation but more importantly, in the asymmetrical development of political transformation and in Central Asia. Authority and democracy make the economic transition face a dilemma, the lack of economic infrastructure highlights vulnerability in the process of democratization, and eventually the newly-established democratic regime immediately changed into the authoritarian regime, Which combined with the social impact on democratization and market-oriented economic structure changes, indicates that the transition in Central Asia is destined to be a long process.