现阶段全球经济失衡与中国的作用

现阶段全球经济失衡并非临时性失衡,而是全球经济结构调整与国际分工格局长期演变的必然结果;同时,由于其得到美国与东亚之间贸易—资金双重循环的支撑,具有长期性与持续性。在这一双重循环中,中国作为部分生产过程的最终聚合地和资金循环的重要中介,发挥着关键作用。在短期内,由于美国“市场提供者”的地位难以改变,发达国家私人资本对顺差国的产业转移以及“美元体制”的存在,全球经济失衡可以维持,不致造成严重的破坏性后果。正因为如此,相关政策调整不能仅限于中美之间,需要在全球贸易与金融领域中展开多边磋商与协调。

Current Global Economic Imbalances and China's Role

This paper analyzes the causes and the nature of the current global economic imbalances.Global economic imbalances isn't a temporary phenomenon,but a result of the long-term evolution of the global economic and industrial structure,and is supported by a double-cycle system of trade and capital flow between the U.S.and East Asia.In this double-cycle system,China plays an important role as a hub of the production and capital flow networks.In the short run,global imbalances are sustainable because of the sustainability of the "dollar system"and the global industrial transfer process and the U.S.'status as a "Market Provider".The relevant policy adjustments should not be limited between China and the U.S.only on the trade level but it need multi-lateral or even global coordination on the trade and monetary level.