集团军山地进攻作战减员预计模型

收集了我军以往作战军减员的经验数据,建立军减员率的时间序列模型,提出计算机模拟的方法。在此基础上,着重分析影响减员的多种因素,对交战双方武器装备数量及技术等级,作战地区的地形和气候条件等因素进行了定量描述。运用专家咨询方法筛选了社会经济行为等"软"指标,用群体层次分析法确定各指标的权重,建立了量化指标体系,并运用该指标体系对我军今后主要作战对象进行了量化。结合以上因素对计算机模拟生成的数据进行修正,建立相应的调整算法。

A Forecasting Model of Army Corps Casualty Rate in Mountain Offensive Operations

Empirical data were extracted from three corpses in one historical war,and the time series models were set up with Box-Jenkins method.we have also quantified several Factors that may have important influence in casualty forecasting,such as adversary weapon system parity,terrain,weather,etc.Especially we choose several social behavior factors by expert consultation,determined the weights of these factors by means of group AHP(analytic hierarchy process),and then constructed a quantitative indexes system of social behavior factors on battle casualties.After that,we set up the relative computer algorithm about these factors to adjust the computer simulation outcome based on the empirical data.