能源安全的经济学分析及政策建议

能源安全危机分为能源供给中断、能源价格长期上涨和能源价格短期急剧波动三类,第一种情况发生的概率在不断降低,但要注意能源进口中私人部门进口会产生外部性。能源安全问题的关键是能源价格。能源价格的涨跌会对宏观经济产生不对称的影响。应积极减少危机发生的可能性。例如来源多样化、降低国民的能源依赖度、发展多种替代能源、保持战略库存,等等。

Energy Security: an Economic Analysis

As China's energy dependency increases,energy security has become a key issue in the healthy and fast development of Chinese economy.This paper categorizes energy security issues into energy supply disruption,long-term energy price rise and short-term energy price fluctuation and analyzes their implications for macro-economy and energy security.The probability of energy supply disruption is falling,and the key issue in global energy security turns to be energy prices.Energy export countries with monopoly can pursue profits by raising energy price;energy price can also fluctuate in short time and influence macro-economy asymmetrically.