贸易开放下中国-澳大利亚农产品贸易增长分析

根据UN Comtrade数据,运用恒定市场份额模型（CMS）,对1996~2012年中澳农产品贸易增长的影响因素进行了实证分析。结果显示,中国农产品竞争力提高和澳大利亚农产品进口需求规模增加是促进中国对澳大利亚农产品出口额增长的主要原因,而中国农产品进口需求规模增加是澳大利亚对中国农产品出口大幅增长的关键因素。对分类农产品而言,影响中澳农产品贸易增长的因素存在差异。总体来看,农产品结构变化对中澳农产品贸易增长的贡献小甚至阻碍出口增长。随着双边市场不断开放,中澳农产品贸易发展的重点在于不断调整出口结构,以适应对方农产品进口需求变化。

Analysis of China-Australia Agricultural Products Trade Growth upon Trade Openness

Using the UN Comtrade data and constant market share model（CMS model）,this paper makes an empirical analysis of the factors influencing China-Australia agricultural trade growth from 1996 to 2012.The results show that the increasing competitiveness of China＇s agricultural products and the expanding of import demand of China＇s agricultural products are the main reasons for the growth of agricultural product exports to Australia;however,the key factor of Australian growing agricultural exports to China is the expansion of China＇s import needs.According to different types of agricultural products,factors influencing trade growth have differences.Overall,the structure changes of agricultural products is little responsive to the trade growth,even may hinder the export growth;so future development of agricultural trade should focus on adjusting exports structure in order to meet the changes in import demand.